AFC – For want of two points, the title was…..

Won? Lost?

No way to tell just yet, as we still have a few games to play…This afternoon’s goalless draw is clearly a missed opportunity to close the gap to one point on Manchester United, as they head into tomorrow’s early afternoon kickoff at Anfield. I don’t necessarily think this will be our last opportunity, but I do not think time is on our side either.

Regardless of United’s task tomorrow, we had a difficult assignment today. While the Mackems may have lost their last four consecutive league matches, they are pushing for a Europa Cup slot this season, and won 3-0 at Stamford Bridge several weeks back. In fact, as I understand they are unbeaten in their (league) visits to London this season; unfortunately for us, that did not change this afternoon.

Our recent matches against Stoke City and Birmingham City had seen us sustain a spate of injuries, so there was no chance that Arsene would be able to select a full strength side. Koscielny recovered from his “hamstring injury” to return to the side, and there was also a return in goal for Szczesny. According to Arsene, both players were “destroyed” over Sunday’s error that handed the Carling Cup to Birmingham, so their respective performances were clearly something to watch.

We lined up Szczensy, Clichy, JD, Kos, Sagna, Diaby, Jack, Denilson, Samir (Capitaine), Nik and Arshavin.

Our bench was comprised of Al, Gibbs, Squil, Eboue, Ramsey, Rosicky and Chamakh.

Many of us hoped to see Aaron Ramsey start today, but he had to make to with a place on the bench for the first time since his leg was broken at Stoke City a year ago. Arsene may have been hoping to ease him back into action for us in a match where we were protecting a lead.

Lost in all the post-match hoopola over our lack of a cutting edge and the atrocious refereeing job is the fact that Sunderland came here with concerns and ambition of their own. Having lost four on the trot, they were unlikely to really have a go, and would almost certainly play for the point. The Europa league is a distinct possibility for them next season, so losing two rather than three points was surely the goal.

We kicked off in a rather subdued fashion. Sunderland took the early initiative and got a couple of attacks going through Malbranque, but couldn’t create a real chance. We gradually began to dominate possession, but couldn’t really fashion any good chances for ourselves.

Our play remained rather pedestrian and stifled, and the service to the forwards was poor. Our midfield passing was also not up to scratch – there was one early sequence where we won the ball from Sunderland, and Denilson passed it straight to an opposition player.

Diaby was guilty of often giving the ball away or over-elaborating. To be fair to these two players, they were certainly not the only ones; nobody in red seemed to play with an early sense of urgency.

As the match progressed, Kos often looked our best attacker, bringing the ball forward and getting into the opposition box. Not that he troubled the Sunderland defence that much, but he was willing to get forward. Our fullbacks Sagna and Clichy spent plenty of time attacking down the flanks, but their crossing was not particularly good. Not that we had players in the opposition box.

Sessengnon worked some space down the right and got a shot off which Szczesny parried, with Sagna completing the clearance. Our first good chance came after the half hour mark, when Nik tried an overhead kick from a corner, sending it directly at Mignolet in the Sunderland goal – the first of several efforts directly at the opposition keeper.

At this point, we were on top, but still not doing enough to unlock Sunderland’s defence. Just a couple of minutes before the interval, our best chance arrived, as Jack passed to Nik, who forced Mingolet to tip his fierce shot over.

Just before the halftime whistle, Denilson almost put us into severe trouble; his pass to nobody from just outside our area went straight out for a corner. Fortunately we were able to deal with it, and the whistle went shortly afterwards. We had much the better of the play, but our midfield had not created much, and other than Nik’s two chances, we never really tested Mignolet.

As usual, I did not expect Arsene to make any halftime changes and he obliged.

Sunderland kicked the second half off, and we started slowly again. Within the first ten minutes, we were treated to a sequence where each side took a turn gifting the other the ball. Muntari appeared to elbow JD – sending the latter to the deck for a few minutes– as our defender and Bramble tussled for the ball. Fortunately, JD was up and able to continue after a few minutes.

Arsene made his first change at (as usual) the hour mark, bringing Chamakh on for the ineffective Denilson. The former made a quick impact, as he burst into the area, but he rushed his pull back to Arshavin, who fired straight at Mignolet. Nevertheless, Chamakh’s introduction (read Denilson’s departure) freed Jack up to dictate more of the play, and he improved considerably.

Roughly 20 minutes into the half; Clichy took a throw-in, but was whistled for a foul throw – replays showed that Clichy did not cross the touch-line when taking the throw and I noticed nothing wrong with how he held the ball. Arsene was clearly angered by the call, and Jack was booked for dissent, setting the tone for events later in the half.

Samir began to assert himself more as the half progressed, and we began to really crank the pressure up. With just under 20 minutes remaining, Sessengnon fouled Kos to give us a free kick in a promising position, just outside the box. Samir bent a wicked, curling kick in, forcing Mignolet into an excellent one-handed save.

Barely a minute later, Chamakh met Jack’s cross from the left with a powerful header which beat Mignolet all ends up, but crashed off the crossbar. Arsene replaced Diaby – who had a poor game and (in my opinion) inhibited the midfield play for much of the match with his slack passing and indecision on the ball. – with Rosicky. Under 15 minutes of the match remained, and at this moment it was one-way traffic towards the Sunderland area.

With just under ten minutes remaining, Samir’s excellent pass sent Arshavin clean through. Bramble, trailing in his wake, first grabbed shirt and arm, then shoved Arsh in the back as he shaped to shoot. Understandably, he didn’t make proper contact, but he had been impeded and pushed – he should have been awarded a spot kick, and there may have been an argument for Bramble’s dismissal. Referee Taylor and his crew did neither, awarding a goal kick.

Our players were clearly aggrieved and allowed concentration to drop. Sunderland started to control possession and the ball spent more time in our half. With seven minutes left, Szczesny prevented us going behind, as he kept Wellbeck’s volley out with a brilliant diving save. He did it again from the resulting corner, as Henderson’s shot took a deflection, Szczesny saved it off his chest and Bramble fired the rebound well over.

A few minutes later, Bendtner’s pass sent Arshavin through again, and this time he put the ball into the net, but an offside flag chalked the goal off. At this point, Sunderland were hanging on for their point. We kept the pressure up, but could not make the breakthrough, despite five minutes stoppage time.

Nik had a chance in front of goal in the fourth minute, but could not make proper contact and the full time whistle meant that we could only move one point closer to Man United, now level with matches played (28 each heading into tomorrow’s Liverpool – United fixture at Anfield).

The major talking points were clearly the second non-call and call. Arsene said simply that he was “too disgusted” to discuss the matter – and then proceeded to discuss it. I thought Taylor and his crew did a dreadful job in the second half – the non-penalty on Arshavin was the most egregious mistake – but in my mind it should not have come to this.

While Bramble’s grab and push on Arsh clearly constituted a penalty, it is important to remember that the awarding of a penalty does not automatically constitute a goal. I say this because it is worth remembering earlier this season at the Stadium of Light we earned a penalty, which Tomas Rosicky proceeded to squander. If he had converted, that would have put us 2-0 up, and almost certainly secured three valuable points. Instead, it opened the door for Bent’s 95th minute equalizer for the Mackems. Mignolet was in inspired form, so I cannot say for certain that he would not have saved our penalty attempt. I can, however, say for certain that we should have had the opportunity to score from the spot. We need to keep in mind that getting a spot kick and scoring from spot kick are not the same thing. We should have had the former, and may or may not have cashed the latter in.

Regarding the 85th minute offside on Arsh, replays showed it was the wrong call, that he was onside when the ball was played. Nevertheless, as I saw the incident live, my first impression was that the Sunderland players saw the flag too, and allowed Arsh an easier run and score in on Mingolet. Perhaps if the flag had stayed up he would not have scored virtually uncontested – we will never know for sure. The replay showed me he was onside – close call, but clearly onside. It was close enough for me that I won’t consider it egregious. We were not the first side to have a goal disallowed due to a close, albeit incorrect, offside call; somehow, I am sure we won’t be the last…

For me, our insipid first half performance is really where we dropped these two points. If we started better with more energy and urgency, I really think the referee performance would be a moot point. Well, perhaps not moot – but not enough to deny us three points. Sunderland were there to be taken, but we spent too much of the first half in sideways-backwards passing mode. Nobody seemed willing to get into the Sunderland box and nobody really drove our side forward. It was too casual – and sloppy – for my liking.

Denilson and Diaby will no doubt be cited as the primary reasons for our poor start – while I think they contributed to our stuttering ineffective midfield, they were certainly not the only culprits. Jack struggled to make an impact, and Samir seemed peripheral out wide.

As critical as I have been of Rosicky, perhaps starting him in place of one of the “D”’s may have helped us function better early. But that is hindsight – I will also admit I would have questioned starting Rosicky….What Arsene could have done, however, is made his first change earlier than the hour mark. It was clear both “D”’s were not having good matches; perhaps an earlier change would have gotten us going earlier and we would not have run out of time.

As I said, that is all hindsight…

At the end of the day we couldn’t win, so we could only gain a point on United. The larger question is whether this is one point gained or two dropped. Opinion on this will certainly be divided among us Arsenal supporters. Those who think we gained here will most likely cite the ability to keep a clean sheet and pick up a point when not playing particularly well – and against twelve men, to boot.

Those who think it is two points dropped may cite the fact that we faced a Sunderland side which had lost four on the trot, on our patch, and that we couldn’t really capitalize on the gift from Chelsea this past Tuesday. There is something to be said for both points of view.

Personally, I fall into the latter category – I think we dropped two points today. If United win tomorrow at Anfield, we will fall to six back, albeit with a game in hand. If they draw, we’ll slip to four back (where we were just prior to this afternoon’s kickoff), a game in hand.

If Liverpool win, we will be three back (where we are now), with a game in hand. But whatever United do tomorrow, our failure to gain three points yesterday means that we cannot maximize the effect of a potential United loss. The best we can hope for is to be two points behind with a game in hand – if we won, we would be looking at a chance to draw level, with one fewer games played. Whatever it is, it will not be as good as It could have been. That is why I think this is two points dropped.

From my position, however, I concede that these two lost points may not necessarily be decisive. We will have 30 more points to play for; United will have 27 more available this time tomorrow, regardless of how their match turns out. But…At some point we will have to catch them. It won’t be today and the window is closing.

Each opportunity we let slip moves United a step closer to the title, and fuels the claims that our Arsenal side simply does not have the mental strength to go the distance. As distasteful as I find those claims, they are not entirely inaccurate, and this group of players has yet to prove they can finish a campaign with a league trophy or cup…

Another factor comes into play as well. Since the start of February, we looked ahead to this spell knowing that United had a more difficult fixture list. After today, they will have passed the most difficult stretch of their league programme. They have been outstanding at home (only two points dropped (versus W. Brom)) all season, and will have Bolton, Fulham, Everton, Chelsea and Blackpool to visit – the only potential point-dropper I see there is Chelsea, and that may depend more upon the Chelsea internal situation than anything else. Away fixtures – besides us – include West Ham, Newcastle and Blackburn. None of these are particularly easy, and with United’s unconvincing away form, they could certainly drop points in some – if not all – of these matches. Even if they do, will we be able to capitalize? I ask because besides our home fixture versus United – who have won 3-1 on their last two visits – we still have to play away at West Brom (who won at the Ems earlier this season), Blackpool, the Spuddies, Bolton,Stoke, and Fulham.

Our home fixtures are Blackburn, Liverpool, United and Villa…That’s it…It’s certainly a good thing that we are one of the best away teams in the league, but that programme still looks a bit daunting. I would argue that we are now at the point that United just may have the easier run in – for a chasing team that is never good news.

These permutations will not even matter if we cannot keep our best players fit. Jack took a couple of knocks on his ankle and Arsene revealed that his status for Barcelona – possibly beyond – is currently up in the air. We already have Tommy, Robin and Theo out for Barca and beyond, and Cesc and Song both struggling to make Tuesday’s match. We are headed to a point where we will have the strongest injured eleven the league has seen in a while…

Nevertheless, it is too soon to give up hope. Liverpool won’t play to do us a favor today – they will play to beat United because they don’t want them to win that 19th league title…Kenny Dalglish certainly will not want that to happen on his proverbial watch…They will play to beat United because it’s Man United. If they can get the result they want for themselves, we will benefit as well. If they don’t, we will still be right there – but our window of opportunity will have moved an inch or two towards the closed position…
We’ll see how this shakes out.

I personally think yesterday’s point will have more of a bearing the Champions League seeding than the race of the league title, but we’ll still be there with a chance, whatever happens at Anfield today.

Written by Oliver