Morning all.
The crux of Mikel Arteta’s pre match interview was that he’s responsible for the results, he doesn’t read the newspapers or social media and the younger players are taking on more responsibility than they perhaps should be.
I don’t blame him for not reading the sports pages and social media as it’s full of comments from people who’ve never stepped foot into football management yet think they have the solutions to Arsenal’s woes. Comments about who ‘should’ have played after we’ve lost is easy. Hindsight is easy. Of course we all have our opinions, I know I have mine which is simple, drop the underperforming players, but I’ve no idea if the alternative options would resolve anything really.
Changing manager is similar really because who honestly knows if the next guy will do any better, if there is a next guy anytime soon. Who is there out there ready to drop everything he’s doing at his current club, in order to take on such a big job at Arsenal? We Arsenal fans think our club is an attractive proposition but perhaps sometimes we need to remove our Arsenal tinted spectacles and accept that we’re a club which has been in decline for ten years or more. I lean towards the more.
Arsenal aren’t entirely in this mess because of the owners, the current board members or Mikel Arteta, they are in this mess because of the pettiness which resulted in David Dein leaving and Arsene Wenger taking the reigns. From that day on, the club has regressed in my opinion. Had Paul Donovan been appointed Dein’s successor instead of Ivan Gazidis, well, who knows.
However, that doesn’t mean mistakes have to continue. As suggested the other day, Arsenal, and by that I mean the board/owners, either start all over again with a new regime or those who are in place now recognise their mistakes and learn from them. Making sure never to repeat them.
Perhaps for Mikel that means ignoring the critics of what was a winning formula, for Edu, stop signing and renewing contracts of older players unless it’s like the one Arsene Wenger and Dennis Bergkamp agreed. Edu was part of the Invincible squad, does anyone honestly believe he doesn’t regret Willian being given a three year deal? Or Luiz an extra year, or Aubameyang a contract extension? Hindsight eh. It’s a wonderful thing.
For now at least, Mikel Arteta is going nowhere and the players have to accept that and get on with what they’re paid to do, just like you and I have to in the workplace and if we don’t like our boss, we find another job.
I think tonight’s match against Man City will be interesting, especially if Mikel Arteta selects a younger team. With Chelsea up next on Boxing Day, I suspect he will. If that younger/second string team go out and play without fear, play with energy, discipline and purpose, then regardless of the result, I think we’ll learn a lot about where Arsenal’s problems lie.
Because if they can turn up and play…..
See you in the comments.
Morning Rico, yeah I completely agree things went awry after the departure of David Devin – also David Dein as well leaving was equally as damaging. 😉
Good morning Rico and all.
Blue sky and sunshine here in Norfolk, a real treat after days of grey skies and pouring rain.
The last thing our club needs is more change at the top. A period of stability and and an end to the present practise of listening to the blandishments of agents trying to flog off the pensioners on their books.
In addition the club need to point out to all players and staff that leaking stories and rumours to the media is strictly forbidden.
I like Emile Smith Rowe, he seems to have all the tools that a modern attacking midfielder has to have except the physicality, but he’s still young and if you look at Kevin de Bruyne who he’s often compared to you’ll recall that he wasn’t the imposing performer at 20 years of age, that he is today. De Bruyne is a really big, developed athlete who can ‘put it about’ if the need be, but he wasn’t like that at Chelsea and that’s why Mourinho moved him on because Mourinho deals with the here and now.
A couple of years in the Bundesliga and de Bruyne was a man and ready to return to the Premier League. He is now arguably one of the most complete players in the world.
Bringing through young players isn’t an exact science because everyone is different, some players like Bakayo Saka mature early physically and mentally, they come into the 1st team and basically stay there, others like Willock need more time, you bring them in for a few games then you rest them, eventually they get into the team and then stay there. Smith Rowe is a bit like that, he isn’t the answer right now, but he might be next season?
In the summer of 2019 it was expected that Reiss Nelson would be leaving Arsenal as his contract was expiring, then with the vultures circling he surprised everyone and signed a new deal, immediately joining Hoffenheim on loan and he’s still with us.
He has the same agent as Balogun and so until it’s confirmed that Foloran has left Arsenal I’m still hopeful that he’ll agree to stay despite all the negative rumours.
Great post Rico, good morning. Playing Man City is really not what Arsenal need at this time, it will only mount more pressure on Arteta and I for one really felt for Arteta. I am more interested to see how the Young guns plGreatay without fear rather than the outcome of the game. Arsene Wenger never give a damn respect to any club in his regime and that’s why he chooses systems like 442 or 4231 to play attacking and attractive football irrespective of who the opponent was. It was his attacking system of playing that led the club to CL final against Barca 2016, and even playing Barca, there was nothing like 343 system being employed. Arteta is just too fearful to play football and the players are following his instructions. Against Everton, it was the second half Arsenal started to attack after giving them too much respect at the first half allowing them to possess the ball. This pattern of playing is the root cause of lack of creativity.
Nice one man. Common sense on the internet- careful.
Morning Kev, Twinsy, Cicero, all.
Bloody typos…
I often wonder which direction we’d have taken had Gazidis not got the job. He was a buddy of the Kroenke family apparently. Wenger is rumoured to have wanted Donovan.
Shouldn’t knock connections though I guess as Tim Lewis was the Kroenke lawyer when his takeover went through. So the Internet says anyway.
Valid point about De Bruyne Kev but youngsters and Mourinho don’t always work out for the better. Lol
Covered a lot of this yesterday , Arsenal has been mismanaged at board level for a long time and it has taken time to filter down to the pitch . As I said yesterday Wenger protected them for a long time but towards his end , his last 4 years began to see things start to slide and since then Emery and Arteta have been unable to halt the slide which has grown to freefall.
I think the whole thing comes from the top down and hopefully Tim Lewis may see the route back , but as he is definitely in the Kroenke camp despite claiming to be an Arsenal supporter , I have my doubts.
Hi Rico I don’t like the way Arteta say’s I don’t read the paper or listen to other peoples comments. It makes it sound like he is full of him self yet it only makes him an easy target for the media when we are so far down the ladder.
All my hopes are pinned on Tim Lewis Potter, certainly the contract issues. At least he had the sense to sack Raul. According to reports anyway.
Hi Geoff, I see it as totally the opposite. Arteta doesn’t need the media or newspapers, mainly written by people who’ve no idea about football management, to tell him something is going wrong. Negativity does nobody any good whatsoever. There’s enough of that within the club it seems without adding to it…
I’m not sure how relevant this is to the present situation but it might give a little insight.
From The Telegraph’s reporter Sam Dean…
Arteta’s Arsenal are entrenched in the bottom half of the table, with just 14 points from 14 games
Most observers would surely agree with Mikel Arteta when he describes Arsenal’s disastrous start to this season as “pretty incredible”. It is certainly incredible that a club of their stature can fall so far down the table, and that all of the positivity from the summer can be lost so quickly in the winter.
Arteta was not referring to the club’s alarming slide, though. The Arsenal manager was instead discussing the underlying numbers in his team’s performances, the metrics that he believes show their recent results are not reflective of the reality of those matches.
He and the club will never divulge the inner workings of their analysts, who operate in an area that has become a battleground for top sides (Liverpool, for example, employ a team of elite physicists in their data unit). As a field of study it is both competitive and secretive, although Arteta did shine some light on the conclusions they have reached when studying recent defeats.
What is going wrong for Arteta and how much is he to blame for Arsenal’s calamitous start to the season?
According to the club’s own metrics, Arsenal’s performance against Everton on Saturday, when they lost 2-1, meant they had a 67 per cent chance of winning. In their recent defeat against Tottenham Hotspur, their figures showed just a seven per cent chance of losing. Against Burnley, when they lost 1-0, it was a three per cent chance of losing.
“When you look at the perspective about how we are losing football matches and how we are where we are, it is pretty incredible,” said Arteta, who faces his former side Manchester City in the League Cup quarter-final tonight. His overarching message was that the underlying numbers from their data team show that Arsenal have been unlucky to lose these games.
Unfortunately for Arteta, it is a reality of football culture in the UK that any reference to underlying statistics is likely to be met with scepticism. And Arteta is not helped by the fact that his internal data is built on models that are not accessible or understandable to the public.
He says the club’s figures suggest they were unlucky to lose, but teams will never reveal how these models work. So Arteta is therefore asking fans and observers to trust in his metrics rather than more commonly used statistics, or indeed their own eyes.
The claim about the north London derby was particularly hard to comprehend. Yes, Arsenal were dominant for much of the match, but Tottenham seemed to allow them to control the ball, knowing they were unlikely to be broken down and that they could then strike on the counter.
All this is dangerous territory, for Arteta and for those of us on the outside. We cannot say the figures are definitely wrong, because we have no access to them. But we cannot say Arteta is definitely right, because we do not know the finer details of how Arsenal analyse their matches.
What is certainly true is that the numbers are far more complicated than basic measurements such as possession – “I am zero interested in possession”, Arteta said – and shots on target. Top teams have all sorts of different ways of measuring key metrics like chance creation and defensive stability, going far beyond figures such as “expected goals”.
As an example, earlier this year Liverpool data scientist William Spearman (who has a PhD in particle physics from Harvard) delivered a presentation on the club’s complex “pitch control” model. Football is not rocket science, but it is getting there. And rocket scientists are driving it in that direction.
So, if Arsenal’s internal analysis shows they are performing better than the results suggest, why are those results not improving? In Arteta’s eyes, it largely comes down to efficiency in front of goal.
Earlier this year, the strikers were burying a high proportion of their chances. Now, they are not.
“Our finishing quality is what is letting us down at the moment because the rest is what it should be to win many football matches,” said Arteta. “It worked there before and we were winning because our finishing quality was through the roof.”
It is interesting to note that Arteta’s referencing of these statistics was unprompted. He was actually answering a question about the atmosphere in the dressing room when he brought up his percentages.
Asked what the figures are based on, he said: “Every possible area that can happen in a match is considered. And it works. But then football is not like basketball where you shoot 50 times and the opponent shoots once so you win every time.
“It is pretty tricky but I am telling you, last year we were winning games with a 25 per cent chance of winning, but we were so efficient when we got into the [key] positions. But if you are constantly in the 60s and 70s [percentages] long term, you are going to win many more matches.”
His conclusion is that the underlying numbers show that the short-term pain will eventually give way to long-term success. Trust the process. Whether the supporters agree, whether they believe in his metrics, is up to them.
Afternoon Rico and all,
Picking up from what Herbs and Potter said yesterday, and you yourself Rico said in the post today; the single largest turning point was David Dein walking away from the club. I banged on about this for years on the late ACLF forum. Dein was the magic man that made the Wenger era work. He dealt with the money men; he dealt with the agents; he gave Wenger the space to work to his strengths i.e. coaching, training, tactics. Whether that success would have continued in the Emirates era is open to debate. Wenger was aging, other clubs had caught up on his methods, the money was not there to replace like with like due to the new stadium project. However, I suspect the 2006-2018 period would have been better than it was, even if far from perfect. But that wasn’t to be.
KSE are not the best owners but equally they are not the worst owners; they cut managers some slack and not interfere on a day to day basis. Although that’s probably due to a lack of ambition on their part. They don’t want to win the PL if it costs £200m. They’d rather take 4th at a cost of £100m. Dropping into the Europa league didn’t see a huge shift in their stance. Ok, Wenger was eventually sacked/pushed. But as long as their asset remained with a value north of £500m and an annual dividend back to KSE of £3m all was hunky dory from their Detroit offices. Arsenal FC is merely a part of their asset portfolio. It’s the uber rich spending money to make more money. It’s not a passion. It’s not an old-backed ego trip wanting trophies. As for Wenger’s sacking, it was only the pesky fans and the protests that forced their hand. The sacking was, I am convinced, on Ivan’s say so and to placate the rabble.
The good news is that Ivan has also gone. He was toxic. The in-fighting between Kroenke and Usamanov is also behind us. Usamanov may have turned us into a Chelsea style club….. loads of money, top players, trophies, managers sacked regularly for only coming second etc. Did we want that? Maybe, maybe not. Is it better than what we have we Silent Stan? Neither are the Arsenal way.
The best single thing that could happen to the club now is for a bid from a new owner. One with an eye to the history. Just as Fenway have done at Liverpool. Looking at the disaster of the Hicks & Gillett era and looking at what came before. That’s what we need. A David Dein led consortium with a billion pound budget to buy the club and refresh the squad, albeit in a sensible sustainable way. It won’t happen though, although the Coronavirus may make it slightly more likely. The club is hemorrhaging cash every single week. Those guaranteed £3m gate receipts are gone. Costs have been cut with a most un-Arsenal-like redundancy of hard working backroom staff, but the players wage bills still have to be paid. With a slump in form, a loss of Europa league revenues, maybe, just maybe, Stan and Josh will cut their losses….. if a buyer came along. Whether the next frying pan would be any better is anyone’s guess. Until then, we roll on with what we have, accepting crumbs from the emperors table.
Anyway, let’s hope a youthful team turns out against City tonight and plays well. Would have been nice to see Martinez between the sticks, but that was yet another transfer foul-up over the summer. Not sure we have much chance of winning, but even a well played and ambitious defeat would be better than some of the dross we have witness from the 1st team.
Afternoon Stu.
Josh once said that his family rely on the board to make most, if not all the decisions and only get involved when it’s absolutely necessary. I’m similar to you in my opinion of them as we could have better but we could also have a lot worse.
There was an article in The Athletic a while back which said the owners have never rejected a managers request for transfer money which I thought interesting. Perhaps we’ve simply had people at the club who’ve never asked for it. Until Edu wanted Partey.
Inter ask for shock pair on loan as Eriksen to Arsenal talk heightens .
I wonder if there is any mileage in this . It seems that they want to swap him for either Xhaka or Ceballos . For the latter we would have to get real Madrid’s permission but Xhaka would be pretty straightforward.
Eriksen will be 29 in Feb, do we need another older player?
It’s a loan , not a purchase and if he injects something to our midfield it could be worth it ,although I want to see Smith-Rowe get a few miles under his belt.
Rico, I’ve heard that too – the club never refused money when asked – and it leaves you scratching your head a bit! The truth is somewhere in there, but I’m sure there are degrees of managing the message going on. Wenger quite possibly never felt comfortable asking for money. Dein dealt with that. After Dein, I suspect Ivan & Co never openly offered big transfer money to Wenger (in part due to the stadium build) and I doubt he ever pushed back and asked for more.
Post Wenger, we have bounced one way or another. Emery probably pushed for more money, which may have lead to the breakdown in relationship between him and the club, and then the players and therein his sacking. Rahul starts to spend big money, some dubiously with his mates. He gets the chop and Edu is put in the chair as the patsy. He doesn’t have the same agents on speed dial. Arteta is annointed as the son of God/s (Pep, Wenger or both?), but is considered a cheaper and less pushy option. Why else, didn’t we appoint Ancelloti last year? Why else are te club openly backing Arteta now, when the likes of Allegri is openly touting for the job? Both would be much more on the front foot asking for spending money.
I may be cynical, but in my mind KSE’s recent spend is nothing to do with being asked for funding. It is all about protecting the value of their asset. They know its value (whether for security of group loans or as an asset for sale) will diminish as we drop from CL to EL, and further down the PL. I suspect they have already made their next decision….. keep Arteta and add to the squad on the basis that there are three teams worse than us that will get relegated, or sack Arteta bring in someone like Allegri, spend £250m+ next summer and £100m+ sums the follow year to stabilise the club until they sack him when the relationship breaks down over money. We will soon see which route they have taken, and by May we will know whether it was “successful” or not.
Ah, a loan is different altogether.
Edu has friends to though Stu in Kia who just happens to be the agent of Willian I believe which is probably why Edu is getting stick for the deal Arsenal gave him. All rumour though.
Re Allegri, I wonder why he’s not already been snapped up? I’m not sure he’d work for Arsenal as I don’t think he can speak English.
Apparently he is learning but he was approached before Emery and wanted too much for the club’s liking . We now have new middle managers but the purse strings are still held by the same people as last time . As things have got progressively worse I can only see his demands will have increased which casts doubt on the whole scenario.
Afternoon Rico and All
Mickys I think is trying to educate his critics when explaining stats of a game,when I hear/read opinions of the match I’ve just watched it never surprises me to be honest that I just watched another game.
Manager’s and coaches what ever level will look for positives win,lose or draw..Fact.
I think Mickys wants his critics to look at the What ifs and Maybes especially when the results are going the other way…..Fine Margins it’s called in the game.
Not sure how true the rumours are
But?
The Syrup could stop playing Pocket Billiads and pull out some more Wonger for Micky and Edu to play with.
Probably the same reason we didn’t get Pep a few years ago. Money I mean, not his English. It’s a difficult one though because our way bill is currently so high. Perhaps if the owner saw that vastly reduced, more money would be available. Right now we seem to throw good money after bad.
Afternoon Fred, did Arsene Wenger try that? Lol
We so desperately need a win, and a little bit of luck maybe.
Big differance between Arsene and Micky Rico
Leaders….me thinks.
I meant when talking to the media Fred.
Another Ozil? Ericson was sold by Totts – English football – and even at Inter you can’t impose – Italian football, which is slower and less aggressive. Nobody calls into question its quality but it no longer adapts to the pace. What is needed is a dynamic, “fresh”, non-star player, who wants to impose himself, taking a leap from a Club of less reference to another with other objects. That is why Fernandes (MU) is being successful. Swap Maddison (Leicester) for Ceballos, for example.
Sorry Rico….I thought you were on about something different.
The media today were speaking about the players getting
confused as to what Micky wants from them,hence coaching
from the line..
Which Arsene never done.
Tonight’s game is unimportant really, although a win would be nice, I hope we save Martenill and Saka for the crucial league games coming up.
A mixture of youth and experience, I’d like to see Smith – Rowe and Balogan unleashed.
COYG
No worries Fred..
R. Rúnarsso
Mustafi
Gabriel
Kolasinac
Maitland-Niles
Elneny
Ceballos
Cédric Soares
Willock
Lacazette (c)
Martinelli
Substitutes
Leno
Tierney
Pepe
Pablo Marí
Nketiah
E. Smith Rowe
Balogun
Good start, not!
If it wasn’t tragic it would be funny
School boy errors. Runasson really doesn’t fill me with confidence.
With Chelsea looming, I’d have thought Martinelli would have been better kept for that game than this one.
Terrible from Elneny and then Mustafi. We’ll struggle to finish with 11 on the pitch at this rate.
Still, a good job he is playing. 😜
Lovely goal…
Somewhat strange reffing . Fernandinho could be/should be off by now . But the cards come out for us . Not saying that they are not deserved but
For the first twenty minutes I thought City were giving a demonstration of passing the ball around ten red and white traffic cones.
Really sad to see Martinelli going off injured.
Their keeper too, how was that challenge on Martinelli not reckless?
Apparently, Martinelli was only going to get 45 mins.
Shocking keeping.
I can’t believe Arteta was stupid enough to send Martinelli out after half time.
Another great bit of business by our management team flogging Martinez and buying Runnarson. How can the defenders have any confidence in him?
Offside..
The lack of VAR really isn’t helping us.
City could so easily be down to nine..
I don’t think I can watch much more of this tripe.
Give Balogun 25 mins.
Night all.
If this was a boxing match the ref would stop it.
Despite all logic Arteta’s days are numbered
Two matches before the transfer window opens on 2nd January; H vs Chelsea and A at Brighton. Will Arteta be leading the team out at West Brom on the 2nd?
I suspect a 3rd and proper national lockdown may just save him. What a bizarre world we live in at the moment.
I did not see the match, but the truth is we really did not have a chance against Man City.
so now fans are writing on other sites that they want Edu and Arteta sacked now.
As for Runarsson I remember we we signed him the reporters in his own country said they did not rate him and by the sounds of things they may well be correct.
Morning all.
New post up.
Arsenal defeats itself.
It looks like a sleepwalker on the field.
The problem is not whether it’s 4x4x2 or 4x3x3 or 3x5x2, etc. It is not visible in the field. It’s internal.
The new goalkeeper offers no confidence. Hopefully, Leno won’t be injured. The 3rd goal was off-side.
Again this season, whenever we start to lose, it is a debacle.