Written by Merlin96
Claudio Raineri did that and won the 2015/16 title. He got lucky with the traditional Top-4 team in disarray due to managerial upheaval and a fractious dressing room. The Tiny Totts bottled it during home straight and Arsenal did the same during perennial “November Blip”. Leicester City seized the opportunity presented, rode their luck, and being the only consistent team which managed to grind out results with just three losses during the entire campaign.
Arsenal, lacking the wisdom to learn from past mistakes since 2007/08, continued to maintain consistently their record of bottling it during the wintry months:
February 11, 2008 – 5 points clear and then won 1 out of next 8 games.
February 23, 2011 – 1 point behind Manchester United and then won 2 out of final 11 games.
February 03, 2014 – 2 points clear and then won 2 out of next 9 games.
December 26, 2015 – 2 points clear and then won 4 out of next 12 games.
What are the lessons Arsene Wenger can learned from Leicester City 2015/16 season?
Lesson #1 – It is not necessary to beat all Top-8 teams to win the title.
Results of Top-8 teams playing against each other are as follows:
1st – 7 wins 4 draws – West Ham United;
2nd – 6 wins 4 draws – Manchester United;
3rd – 6 wins 3 draws – Southampton;
4th – 5 wins 6 draws – Leicester City;
5th – 5 wins 5 draws – Tiny Totts;
6th – 4 wins 7 draws – Arsenal.
Leicester City proved that it is not necessary to beat traditional Top-4 teams to win the title, but one must collect 21 points or more against Top-8 teams to stand a decent chance to win the title.
Abu Dhabi City, with a defence worse than Arsenal, is bottom of Top-8 Mini-League, winning only one game.
Lesson #2 – The key to win the title is to slaughter Bottom-12 teams.
Results against Bottom-12 is a perfect correlation with the final League Table Top-5 as shown below:
1st – 18 wins 6 draws – Leicester City.
2nd – 18 wins 5 draws – Abu Dhabi City.
3rd – 16 wins 4 draws – Arsenal.
4th – 14 wins 8 draws – Tiny Totts.
5th – 13 wins 5 draws – Manchester United.
Man Utd set the gold standard of collecting 70 out of 72 points against Bottom 12 to win the title.
Leicester City proved it is not necessary to beat traditional Top-4 teams to win the title, but one must collect 60 points or more against Bottom-12 teams. They were awesome and unbeaten against Bottom-12 teams. Similarly, Abu Dhabi City was also awesome against Bottom-12 teams but they lost the title by winning only one game against Top-8 teams.
Tiny Totts lost the tile by drawing too many games against the Bottom 12.
Arsenal too were losing and drawing too many games against Bottom 12 teams and we continued to struggle to score against those same clubs throughout last season. which proved that Arsene Wenger must buy a 20+ league goal scorer to support Olivier Giroud if he wants to win a title again. The goal-scoring department was not helped with ‘Brit Pack’s’ dreadful performances and Alexis’ injury during a crucial period of the season.
As a side-note, Arsenal were awful playing against the 4 London clubs, winning only 1 out of 8 games, and that was against Crystal Palace.
Certainly, we can win the 2016/17 title if we are ruthless against the Bottom 12 clubs, in fact I’d suggest we must beat them all:
- Collect 65 points against Bottom-12 teams;
- Collect 25 points against Top-8 teams;
- This gives us 90 points, enough to win the 2016/17 title.
You see, I am that eternal dreamer which fell in love with a football club, like that “small boy”, always believing we will win the title next season … next season … next … ad infinitum.
Sir Bobby Robson – Newcastle United Manager:
“What is a club in any case?
“Not the buildings or the directors or the people who are paid to represent it, it’s not the television contracts, get-out clauses, marketing departments or executive boxes. It is the noise, the passion, the feeling of belonging, the pride in your city.
It’s a small boy clambering his father’s hand, gawping at that hallowed stretch of turf beneath him and, without being able to do a thing about it, falling in love.”
Transfer Gossip:
Mateo Musacchio is the latest defender to be linked with Arsenal. He currently plays for Villarreal and both Barca and Utd are interested in him too. (The Express)
Arsenal are reportedly confident of striking a deal for Wojciech Szczesny to remain at Roma on loan for a second season. (The Mirror) The same paper suggests David Ospina could be on his way to Besiktas for regular playing time.
It was only a matter of time wasn’t it… Karim Benzema is tipped to make a move to north London this summer and join up with his old mate Mesut Ozil….
Finally, well done to Hector Bellerin who made his début for the Spanish big boys last night. He’s been promoted after Dani Carvajal suffered injury and it’s highly likely that the youngster will now be heading off to France in the summer. Shame really as we all know what that team are like as we saw it with Fabregas and they’ll be no Santi there to look out for him….
That’s it! Have a great BH Monday here in the UK, shame the sun hasn’t got its hat on….
Thanks again Merlin. Another day off for me… 😉
Looks like the layout has gone a bit weird today, best I try and sort it out…
Another interesting post Merlin may I call you Merlin
That’s his name Joe 😉
I like this layout, it works for me!
Statistics, statistics and lies!
The fact of the matter is/ was Arsenal should have won the EPL at a canter last year. The reason was simple, they just weren’t good enough, not just against the top six but more or less, at some point any other team in the division! For 60 odd minutes they struggled against Villa on the last day of the season, at home! The final score was very flattering. It seems they have an attitude problem against the lesser teams they expect them to just roll over, Sunderland 0-0, they didn’t and Arsenal had no answer to their blanket defence, because they weren’t good enough or savvy enough to ignore the managers dictates!
Will next year be any different? No. A resounding No! Not until the manager gets a bit more ‘active’ and ‘threatening’
So there will be no change next year then!
Have to agree Wavy, nothing will change much regardless of who Arsenal sign, unless AW makes this side more disciplined and plays in a very different attacking way…
Good day to all!
Hi Joe, sure my nick is Merlin.
Wavy, every event is a discrete event independent of each other.
E.g. if you toss a coin and landed head 3 times in a row. Will it happen again in the 4th toss?
Well, that is how you lose or win big in a casino.
Leicester City is a classic example.
Relegation fodder the season before season and just survived. And hot favourite to be relegated last season. They won the title and proved that each discrete event is independent of each other.
Perhaps, Arsene Wenger had discovered his nucleus which, like Raineri did, Wenger will need to buy cleverly to strength his core and win next season title.
Let’s hope he will buy players to win title; and emulate Ferguson before he retire.
Yes, we struggle to score goals but we are nearly there and should improve from last season performance.
‘Let’s hope he will buy players to win title; and emulate Ferguson before he retire’.
Amen to that Merlin but it’s probably more likely now that he’ll stay on…
But, Merlin, it is impossible to legislate for the unbelievable! For example, tossing a coin 476 times and it comes down ‘tails’ consecutively, this is quite inexplicable, it is chance of course but you would probably get odds well in excess of 5000 to 1! (Happened in ‘Rosencrantz and Giuldenstern are Dead’ by Tom Stoppard, a marvellous play).
An old philosophical saying for you, and absolute and incotravertible Truth, “if things don’t change they stay as they are”.
I give you Arsene Wenger, a case in point!
One goalkeeper, no out field players, till Xmas and then just the one. This year one outfield player and so far as I can see, no more coming! You couldn’t make it up, except you can! Wenger keeps on tossing that coin and it keeps on coming down, ‘tails’! ?
Incidentally, good post by the way. Where would we be without stats? (I’m not being sarcastic, I mean it! ?
I can see at least two more being signed this summer Wavy… Hopefully more but at least another two.
The thing about stats is they can be miss used and a lot has to do with interpretation and the honesty of the person presenting them.
But if you trust the person presenting them they can go along way to proving an argument and falling back on the adage of lies…….. is unfair and disingenuous.
Numbers don’t lie. Nice post Merlin, the stats are intriguing. Seems we are struggling even at London. With change in attitude against the bottom12 teams we’d gather points enough to win it.
Our blip months are so predictable – almost acceptable – our sport science dept should have some insight on that.
Afternoon Rico and the House
Kev if you read this hold fire on your blog on the youth set up.
Important discussions are taking place to change the U21pl
format for next season.
They are saying 16 Clubs are being invited to enter their u21 teams in the Paint Trophy cup and the age limit for the u21 league will be increased to U23,
It is also muted there will be U16-U17 -U19 league’s and the U21 will become the reserve league.
If all this do’s happen I think it could say goodbye to players going on loan
Afternoon Rick..
That all sounds quite interesting re the youth setup…
What a quiet old day it’s been, everybody must have been to their local fete… 😉
Got blown away by a strong force northerly wind whilst trying to sort the garden out.
That’s not good…
We have had 3 days of nice sunshine that will be are summer then ?
Lucky you Joe…
Doom rain tomorrow!
Raining signings maybe…. 😉
Howdy y’all good post merlin!!!
What I can safely say regarding the non wins against the lower teams is that I don’t think I expected a win against Swansea at home or that we would be able to breakdown that stellar Sunderland defence! Quite frankly I don’t think that those teams feared the worst either!
Hi Silky, nor West Brom away, or Southampton home and away… Pretty poor really…
On that note, catch up tomorrow..
Night all.
Ya there’s def another 4/5 games in the same bracket!
I reckon there will b more Xhaka also, if that’s all we sign then why bother?
Same old same old being a couple of players short and expecting things to get better, insanity!!!! Which according to Einstein is as follows;
Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.
Nite dude!
If off also GOT is on ?? so excited! Talk 2moro!
That’s interesting Rick, I’ll listen out for the changes.
On the surface they seem to make sense.
Watch this space it seems.
Well done Jimmy Anderson, 451 wickets, 3rd highest among fast bowlers, only Courtney Walsh and McGrath in front of him…
And well done Alister Cook, the quickest and youngest ever to 10,000 runs…
He’s also the youngest to 7,000, 8,000 and 9,000 runs…
Giroud scores again
He scored for France tonight good goal.
We need a 25-30 goal striker why are we making do with a useless 24 goal a season striker shouldn’t we just sell our rubbish striker and buy a new striker to score 1 more goal.
Great day for both Kev…
Joe, I really don’t think you get the Giroud stuff at all. Arsenal need another striker, one in a different mould to Giroud, one with pace, one who is clinical and one who doesn’t go missing for three months in a season.
If Arsene Wenger wants this side to get back to playing with pace and width etc like they used to, then Ollie isn’t the answer in every game….
Morning all..
Morning Rico. Very wet here. 🙂
Morning Adam. Windy here but no rain yet thank goodness…
Did you watch the France match?
It’s hammering down here Rico. No, I don’t watch much football in the close season. I really enjoy the break from it. I doubt I will get to see very much of the Euros either.
Hope the rain isn’t heading my way Adam…
I doubt I’ll watch much of it either unless the weather is rubbish…
Then you and I can have a sensible discussion about what Arsenal might need to win the PL title next season. 🙂
You start. 🙂
A new manager? 😉
Your turn….
A new central defender ? 🙂
It’s very wet in South London…
Morning All.
Morning Kev.
Morning Adam
Morning Rico
A new owner
That’s looking likely now with Chambers going out on loan…
Morning Kev.
I think we could do it with Stan in place myself Rico. :). Because we should have done it this year.
How about ‘a new mindset’ ?
That would be the best place to start Kev, and a younger board…
Morning all.
Glorious sunshine here in Cornwall……….I picked a great week for a week off !.
Interesting stuff from Morata !.
http://www.standard.co.uk/sport/football/alvaro-morata-to-arsenal-spain-striker-confirms-tempting-premier-league-offers-but-wants-swift-a3259791.html
Chambers is an odd one.
And new tactics?
O the right players to play the way Wenger wants to.
How about more shots at goal?
Bigger goals and better Reffs and we would have won the league !
Cookie the first Englishman to 10,000 test runs …………….the amount of curries I`ve had over the years I reckon I`ve had more real runs not just test one`s !.
Surfing then LC?
He is Adam.
A bit of width?
No chance Rico !………………first 1000 ab exercises, then 3 X 5 minute planks ( outside on a mat) then I have to weed spray a small sand school area, then on ride on mowe (taht`s the good bit 😀 ), then down the gym and tonight @ 7pm the road running club for a 10K !………………………………….so some real transfer gossip will be a nice start if you dont mind and make it Ornsteinesque ! 😀
Exactly Adam, a winger or two would be nice…
🙂 Lc, although I’m not convinced you’re truthing….
Good morning Rico, Adam and all,
The whether here is gloomy and drab…
Very interesting and well researched post Merlin. Fergie won titles without beating his so called title rivals on many occasions.
Wavy- I tend to agree with your first post as well…
Morning TS.
Abs, planks, gym every day and run every other day like clockwork and at 60 I would put Arshavin to shame even when he scored 4 at Anfield !……without it I wouldn`t have a 20ish girlfriend unless I was a millionaire !…………….alright, I lied about the girlfriend !. 😆
Windy here but not yet wet!
The club needs a visit from Ofsted. That expose all the weaknesses and will leave them with a list of improvements that they will be forced to action!!
I’d have a near total clear out and start all over again. Starting with Wenger being placed in a time machine and turning the clock back 20 years. Having first insisting on a few ‘new’ courses and tactical redirection. Sometimes the ‘old’ ways are the best. He needs to reinvent himself and re-evaluate his approach to the game of football. I fear he has lost his way somewhat.
Morning everybody
weather even ffs
Morning Ts/Wavy.
The rain has just arrived here…. 🙁
Who needs the BBC weather website eh…. 😉
New post up now.
Giroud was being booed by French fans last night……