Wenger all but confirms Cazorla but no M'Vila! Winning a Trophy in 2012/13 is a real possibility…

Is 2011/12 our worst season during the Arsene Wenger Era and inception of Premier League in 1992/93?

Apparently not as 2005/06 tops it.

Season … W … D … … L … F … … A … +/- … Table Position

2005/06: 20 … 07 … 11 … 68 … 37 … 31 … 67 points … 4th
2006/07: 19 … 11 … 08 … 63 … 35 … 28 … 68 points … 4th
2011/12: 21 … 07 … 10 … 74 … 49 … 25 … 70 points … 3rd

But without Van Persie, managing a record 49 goal as a “One Man Team”, scoring 30 league goals or 41% of 74 league goals scored, it would have been our worst.

Look at 2011/12 season League Table, it gives an indication that from the failures, from an abysmal 17th in September to 3rd in May 2012.

W …. D …. L … … F ….. A … +/- … Points

28 … 05 … 05 … 93 … 29 … 64 … 89 — Abu Dhabi City
28 … 05 … 05 … 89 … 33 … 56 … 89 — Manchester United
21 … 07 … 10 … 74 … 49 … 25 … 70 — Arsenal
20 … 09 … 09 … 66 … 41 … 25 … 69 — Tiny Totts
18 … 10 … 10 … 65 … 46 … 19 … 64 — Chelski
14 … 10 … 14 … 48 … 41 … 07 … 52 — Liverpool

We can win the 2012/13 title if only Arsene Wenger can get his act together tactically, plus have a willingness to buy experienced players to strengthen the squad for this two-year transitory period to allow his Wunderkind to mature, develop and fulfil their potential as world-class players, and with it, transform this 2011/12 inconsistent bunch into a title-winning squad.

So, if Arsenal are to win 2012/3 title, we must have this kind of result:

W …. D …. L … … F ….. A … +/- … Points
30 … 05 … 03 … 96 … 30 … 66 … 95 — Arsenal

Manchester United won the 2008/09 title by securing 70 points out of 72 against the bottom 12 teams or 74 points out of 78 against the bottom 13 teams. They were notorious in scoring winners in the 90th minute and beyond, with Tevez playing a key role in many matches.

In this coming season, we need to be securing:

74 points out of 78 points against Bottom-13 teams.
21 points out of 36 points against Top-6 teams.

So, against Top-6 teams, we can afford to lose 3 matches and draw 3 matches; but we must not drop points against any of the bottom 13 teams.

This is achievable only if we cut out all the silly mistakes we committed against the bottom 13 sides last season, have a fully fit squad, turn The Emirates into a Fortress, and score in all 38 league fixtures.

Just look at our 2011/12 results:

A comparison of the Top-6 team against the bottom 13 teams:

W … D … L … … F ….. A … +/- … Points
21 … 2 … 02 … 58 … 11 … 47 … 65 — Manchester United
20 … 4 … 02 … 68 … 19 … 49 … 64 — Abu Dhabi City
17 … 6 … 03 … 51 … 19 … 32 … 57 — Tiny Totts
16 … 6 … 04 … 49 … 22 … 28 … 54 — Chelski
15 … 6 … 05 … 55 … 28 … 27 … 51 — Arsenal
09 … 7 … 10 … 31 … 26 … 05 … 34 — Liverpool

Against the bottom 13 sides, we have the second worst results and this was the main reason we were never in with a chance of being title contenders.

We were mediocre but can do better with a bit of luck, a fully fit squad and without that disastrous August/September 2011 start with Arsene Wenger creating that perennial “Summer of Discontents” with his poor management of player transfers and another Nasri-Cesc Saga.

Had his August 31st panicky buys at 23:59:59 occurred in July before pre-season training had started, things may have been very different.

If Arsene Wenger gets his act together this July, ruthlessly culls the deadwood and disloyal players (if they still refuse to sign a new contract extension by July 31) and he goes ahead and signs any needed replacements by July 31st, then and only then can we consider ourselves as title-contenders

Let’s now compare our performance against the Top-6 teams:

W … D … L ….. F ….. A … +/- … Points

8 ….. 1 … 3 … 25 … 10 … 15 … 25 — Abu Dhabi City
7 ….. 3 … 2 … 31 … 21 … 10 … 24 — Manchester United
6 ….. 1 … 5 … 19 … 20 … -1 … 19 — Arsenal
5 ….. 3 … 4 … 17 … 15 … 02 … 18 — Liverpool
3 ….. 3 … 6 … 15 … 22 … -7 … 12 — Tiny Totts
2 ….. 4 … 6 … 16 … 24 … -8 … 10 — Chelski
3 ….. 1 … 8 … 09 … 17 … -8 … 10 — Everton

We need this kind of result to win 2012/13 title:

W … D … L ….. F ….. A … +/- … Points

6 ….. 3 … 3 … 20 … 10 … 10 … 21 — Arsenal

Look at 2011/12 and how dreadful our forwards and attacking midfielders were. This is another reason why we were not title contenders and probably why we lost so many matches against the bottom 13 sides –  i.e. that inability to score when Van Persie was having a blip or not playing.

96 goals scored in 54 games or an average of 1.78 goals per game played.

This is below par, we should be averaging 2 goals per game in a 60-game season if we are to have a successful one…

Van Persie, Walcott, Gervinho, Chamakh, Park CY and Benik Afobe are classified as STRIKERS.

56 goals or 58.33% scored by STRIKERS.
24 goals or 25.00% scored by MIDFIELDERS.
15 goals or 15.63% scored by DEFENDERS.
01 goals or 01.04% are “own” goals.

Our midfield were dreadful as they should have been contributing to at least 40% of the goals based on 4-2-3-1 formation.

The ideal ratio and expectation for 2012/13 season league goals is:

48 goals – 50% STRIKERS
38 goals – 40% MIDFIELD
10 goals – 10% DEFEND + “OWN” GOALS

We really need to add:

1) Two proven goal scorers that can contribute 40 league goals. (Podolski & Giroud done)

2) Two promoted youngsters/reserve strikers that can contribute at least 8 league goals.

3) An attacking midfielder who can contribute with 10+ goals per season, plus the likes of Rosicky, Gervinho, Arteta, OX, Wilshere, Ramsey and promoted youngsters need to step-up their game and contribute with at least 30+ league goals between them.

Since the 2005/06 season and the departure of Thierry Henry, we never have a consistent 20+ league goal per season striker, which brings me to Theo Walcott.

Statistically, he is no better than Bendtner in the goal scoring department and has yet to score 10 league goals a season in all the years with Arsenal FC.

If he stays and Wenger moves him to play behind Giroud in a 4-4-2 (like Michael Owen at Liverpool FC), as a more central striker who hovers on the right flank, perhaps he can score 20+ league goals during 2012/13 season, with those 11 assists of lobbed balls from Song going to him instead of RvP?

Tactically, Walcott should be playing to his strength, running into space, between defenders, diagonal runs from the flank in behind defenders (remember Croatia vs England?) and as “Lone Striker” during counter-attack chasing those hoof balls out of defence (remember 2007/08 season?)

In summary, Theo Walcott maybe the replacement for RvP and it is not necessary to buy another striker.

Any title contender will need four (4) main strikers, and what better opportunity than to promote 19 year old Benik Afobe into senior team this season.

Will they be able to step-up their games for 2012/13 season?

I doubt it very much and it should be Wenger’s main priority now to buy an attacking midfielder that is a threat in the goal scoring department.

In a nutshell, we can win the 2012/13 title if only Arsene Wenger can assemble a squad that can attain this KPI:

W … D … L … …. F ….. A … +/- __ Points

30 … 5 … 3 … … 96 … 30 … 66 … … 95 — Arsenal
06 … 3 … 3 … … 20 … 10 … 10 … … 21 — Arsenal vs Top-6 teams
24 … 2 … 0 … … 76 … 20 … 56 … … 74 — Arsenal vs Bottom-13 teams

It is achievable, as proven in 2011/12, that even with a bunch of dross, an inconsistent, raw and young goal keeper who is slightly better than Almunia, and a “One Man Team”, we managed to finish 3rd.

Tactically, Arsene Wenger is still obsessed with his Youth Project and Circulation football as I have written about before and I doubt he will change his view on it either, or his “Ajax Model of Team Building” belief but will we see the “Tiki Taka” style of play this coming season?

Within the next two years, how many of Wenger Wunderkind from Hale End Academy, plus those 16 years old that he bought, will make it into the 3rd Team and became the “Core” group of 6 to 8 senior players that can play Arsene Wenger’s Circulation Football?

Can we see Arsene Wenger using Oxlade-Chamberlain and Wilshere as the players that he will build his 3rd Team around, with a core spine of:

Szczesny

Koscielny

Vermaelen

Gibbs

Song

Coquelin

Walcott

Giroud

Afobe

Podolski

Should Wenger play the Italy 4-4-2 with a “Diamond Formation” with Pirlo sitting deep and De Rossi as a destructive DCM behind Cassano-Balotelli, with a fluid “Diamond” midfield interchanging. That is, using Walcott-Giroud in 4-4-2?

Alternatively, Wenger may opt for his 4-2-3-1, or even Spain’s 4-6-0 with Podolski as “Lone Striker” like Fabregas played.

Let’s not be overtly pessimistic as we have the nucleus of a team that can be a serious title contender in 2012/13 season, and like Greece in 2004 or Denmark in 1992, with plenty of assists from Lady Luck, winning the 2012/13 title is not beyond us.

The nucleus of Arsene Wenger’s 3rd and greatest Arsenal team is there with his latest crop of Wenger Wunderkind approaching 18 to 19 year old, slowly moving up into senior team this season; and with a core group of 6 to 8 of them in the squad developing telepathic understanding by 2014/15 season; that is what I am looking forward to for the next 3 seasons.

Arsene Wenger’s “Circulation Football” is coming into its own, with or without RvP, Walcott and even Song.

KEEP THE BLIND FAITH!!!

Written by Merlin96

Few titbits:

Arsene Wenger has been questioned about the future of van Persie and he has he wants everything sorted out by the 18th August in attempt to avoid a repeat of last summer.

He also ruled out a move for Yann M’Vila before learning more about the fitness of Diaby and Wilshere.

No, we wait for Diaby and Wilshere. We are not short if they are coming back. If we have setbacks, it could be different.

When asked about the Cazorla rumour about us being interested in him, through a rather large grin he replied:

I don’t know this guy

Mr Wenger, everyone knows this guy by now……

That’s it, have a good day all….

Comments are closed.